Article img

The Insurer In Full: Hurricane season keeps ahead of schedule as peak period approaches

The first US landfalling hurricane of the year serves as a warning that the peak period of the Atlantic hurricane season is approaching...

Activity for the season to date suggests it is running roughly two weeks ahead of schedule. It is at this point that warnings of a potential escalation in activity gather pace.

Hurricane Hanna is unlikely to result in a large insured loss from a wind perspective, with the storm’s hurricane-force wind field largely missing the largest concentration of exposures along the South Texas coastline.

Storm surge impacts spread further along the coastline and there remains potential for further inland flooding as the storm, now a tropical depression, hovers over South Texas and northeast Mexico.

While Hanna’s insured losses will likely be relatively moderate, the storm was the first in this year’s Atlantic season to highlight the potential for rapid intensification over warm waters.

An absence of dry air and wind shear meant the storm was able to rapidly attain Category 1 status before making landfall in southern Texas. Had the storm remained over the Gulf of Mexico for longer, favorable conditions would have ensured further intensification.

These warm waters have helped fuel forecasts of above average storm activity in 2020, with forecasters largely united in expectations for a busy season.

Meteorologists tend to favour Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) as the best measurement of activity within a season as it accounts for frequency, duration and intensity of storms rather than simply measuring the season by number of storms.

Following Hanna’s landfall, the ACE Index for 2020 has reached 13.9, compared with a long-term average of 7.1 for this stage of the season. Through the past month the ACE value has been running roughly two weeks ahead of schedule.

Hanna’s formation as the season’s first hurricane on July 25 was also roughly two weeks ahead of schedule. According to Colorado State University, the average date for the season’s first hurricane is August 10.

The peak period of the hurricane season typically begins in mid-August, meaning we are now on the cusp of seeing the type of storms that could bring major loss potential.

Dry air has largely suppressed activity in the Main Development Region between the coast of Africa and the Caribbean Sea in the season to date and prevented Tropical Storm Gonzalo from reaching hurricane status last week.

Meteorologists are already looking ahead and for several days have been concerned about a system currently known as Invest #92L, but soon likely to become Tropical Storm Isaias.

While too early to determine the ultimate intensity or path of this system, forecast models are for the most part suggesting it will follow a path close to or into the US East Coast.

Guidance is still in early stages, and some models are suggesting the storm will not gain enough intensity to pose any significant threat. Some models bring the storm into land while others suggest it will curve out to sea.

With the season’s activity already running ahead of schedule, the industry now enters a period where it is likely constant monitoring of the Atlantic basin will be needed as the 2020 season approaches its peak period.  

“There are no indications there is anything that would suppress an otherwise busy season,” Eric Uhlhorn, principal scientist at modelling firm AIR Worldwide, has warned.

While it is too early to forecast the ultimate impacts of #92L, or the storms that follow, it is clear that the industry will need to maintain a careful watching brief on this and subsequent storms over the coming weeks as the 2020 season enters its busiest spell. 

 

For continued access to market leading content click here to enquire about a subscription to The Insurer

See more
See less
Share fluctuations
Sompo
31.0
USD
-3.2%
Tokio Marine
30.2
USD
-3.1%
MS&AD
26.5
USD
-2.5%
Hannover Re
43.4
USD
-1.6%
IGI
12.5
USD
-1%
Ryan Specialty
54.0
USD
-0.7%
WTW
272.0
USD
-0.6%
Truist
37.2
USD
-0.6%
Brown & Brown
84.9
USD
-0.4%
AXA
36.5
USD
-0.4%
QBE
11.3
USD
-0.4%
RenaissanceRe
24.8
USD
0%
See more
See less
Upcoming events