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The Insurer In Full: European big four eye hard market opportunities after $4.2bn H1 Covid-19 hit

Europe’s big four reinsurers booked close to $4.2bn of Covid-19 P&C claims between them during the first half of 2020, but the majority of the reserves remain IBNR with only a small portion of claims notified...

Munich Re, which has the largest H1 P&C reinsurance exposure of the four at Eur1.4bn ($1.66bn), said just Eur80bn of that total had been notified to date.

At Swiss Re, $1.8bn of the group-wide Covid-19 claims impact of $2.5bn remains IBNR. Covid-19 P&C reinsurance claims at Swiss Re totalled $1.5bn during the first half.

Hannover Re said 80 percent of its Eur600mn of H1 P&C Covid-19 losses represent IBNR claims, while Scor said it had received Eur74mn of the Eur248mn P&C pandemic claims booked in H1.

The high percentage of IBNR within the H1 reserving highlights the continued uncertainty around Covid-19 losses and the extent to which these estimates may move in future reporting periods.

Scor’s relatively small Covid-19 bill compared with its peers reflected the Paris-based reinsurer’s lack of exposure to event cancellation and limited exposure from multi-line treaties.

Scor does hold some exposure to credit, surety & political risk as well as property BI.

Munich Re’s market leading position in event cancellation was reflected by its high H1 Covid-19 reserves.

Despite the $1.5bn Covid-19 claims impact, Munich Re’s H1 combined ratio of 103 percent was ahead of analyst consensus. As Berenberg analysts noted, it was the only one of the big four reinsurers to beat analysis consensus on net income during the half year.

Alongside event cancellation, Munich Re reported smaller impacts due to business interruption, credit and surety and other classes.

The group’s primary unit, Ergo, also saw pandemic-related losses in the low double-digit million-euro range, while life reinsurance recorded Eur100mn of losses.

Combined-ratio

In addition to Swiss Re’s $1.5bn P&C reinsurance impact, the Swiss company saw $500mn of claims in its Corporate Solutions segment and a $500mn life reinsurance impact.

Across both of its non-life units, business interruption claims totalled $973mn, with event cancellation claims of $484mn and credit and surety claims of $129mn.

Big four Covid-19 P&C reinsurance impacts H1 2020

Natural catastrophes

Scor and Hannover Re both delivered combined ratios of 102.3 percent during H1, 0.7 percentage points ahead of the result at Munich Re.

Swiss Re was the outlier among the big four with a combined ratio of 115.8 percent, driven by a 15.3 percent contribution from Covid-19.

A relatively low level of natural catastrophe losses among the reinsurers helped combined ratios hold up better than some analysts had expected.

Swiss Re saw the highest natural catastrophe bill of the four, absorbing losses of Eur536mn during the half year, driven by its exposure to Australian losses.

Fitch Ratings said some of the big four reinsurers may reallocate unused natural catastrophe budgets to absorb some of the pandemic claims booked in the first half.

Swiss Re was also an outlier in terms of reserve releases, which were either neutral or contributed positively to results at three of the four reinsurers. Swiss Re saw additional reserve strengthening which added 3.3 points to its combined ratio.

Looking ahead

All four reinsurers grew at the summer renewals.

Scor said it had grown its reinsurance book to Eur717mn of renewed premium at the June and July renewals, with 13 percent growth in its cat portfolio and 8.2 percent average price increases across the renewals.

Swiss Re said it found attractive opportunities to deploy capital at the summer renewals, particularly in its focus area of short-tail lines, achieving volume growth of 6 percent.

Hannover Re said it saw significant improvements in prices and conditions running into double-digit percentages at the summer renewals.

In the 1 July reinsurance renewals, Munich Re said it was able to increase the volume of business written by 8.3 percent to Eur3.8bn. The carrier said it was possible to tap into growth opportunities, especially in North America and with global clients, with the primary focus of the renewals was business in North America, South America and Australia.

Berenberg said Munich Re is exceptionally well placed to take advantage of the hardening reinsurance market, particularly given the flight to quality that is now taking place.

Regulatory solvency ratio

With the reinsurance market now in a hard market phase across most business lines, all four will likely see opportunities to recoup some of their pandemic losses at forthcoming renewals.

 

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