Record Rainfall Events Prompt Multi-Billion-Dollar Flood-Related Economic Toll Globally

Aon launched the latest edition of its monthly Global Catastrophe Recap report, which evaluates the impact of the natural disaster events that occurred worldwide during November 2021...

The report reveals that a prolific “atmospheric river” caused catastrophic impacts in Canada’s southern British Columbia province in mid-November, resulting in a province-wide State of Emergency and killing four people. Damage to property, agricultural interests and infrastructure was widespread, which also resulted in notable supply chain disruptions. The economic loss was anticipated to approach or exceed USD2 billion in Canada alone. Heavy rains also affected the U.S. state of Washington, where additional economic losses were estimated to reach USD200 million.

Elsewhere, an active Northeast Monsoon affected parts of India and Sri Lanka from late October through November, killing at least 190 people in India and 27 in Sri Lanka. Tens of thousands of structures and vehicles were damaged or destroyed, along with agricultural land and infrastructure. Total economic losses in Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh states (India) alone were estimated at more than INR180 billion (USD2.4 billion), with additional losses in neighboring states.

Steve Bowen, Managing Director and Head of Catastrophe Insight for Aon’s Impact Forecasting team, said: “The reality of heavier rainfall events and subsequent flooding continues to become more evident on a seemingly monthly basis as new examples of extreme events occur. 2021 has recorded several record-setting events in parts of Europe, Asia, Oceania and the Americas, which has further exposed structural, agricultural and infrastructure vulnerabilities to high-intensity, low-interval rainfall occurrences. Recent events in Canada, India and Australia serve as reminders of the need to navigate the increasing volatility of these events and the interconnected and more severe risks they present.”

Other natural catastrophe activity that occurred in November includes:

• Arwen, the first windstorm event of the current season to be jointly named by the UK Met Office, Met Éireann and the Dutch KNMI, primarily affected parts of the United Kingdom with strong winds and brought wintry conditions and disruption Nov. 26-27. Three people were killed, and power outages affected nearly one million people. Total economic and insured losses from the event were expected to reach tens of millions EUR, notably lower than initially feared from forecasts.

• A pair of magnitude-6.0 and -6.3 tremors resulted in at least two fatalities, nearly 100 injuries and damage to 3,000 homes in southern Iran on Nov. 14. Local infrastructure was also impacted. Total economic losses were estimated at IRR7.0 trillion (USD165 million).

• A series of winter weather events in early and late November impacted parts of China, notably Inner Mongolia, Liaoning and other northern provinces. Total aggregated economic losses were estimated by the authorities at CNY6.9 billion (USD1.1 billion).

• Notable flooding in New South Wales and Queensland in Australia occurred during the second half of November. Flooding was significant along the Upper Lachlan River, where evacuation orders were issued for residents in Forbes. This was the wettest November for New South Wales and Australia since records began. Extensive damage to agricultural land was incurred, with total economic losses initially expected to be in the 100s of millions (USD).

The full Impact Forecasting Global Catastrophe Recap November 2021 report is available at http://thoughtleadership.aon.com/Documents/20211212-analytics-if-november-global-recap.pdf