Live Event: TD10 Expected to Strengthen; Florida Hurricane Landfall Likely

​​​​​Key Headlines

• Strengthening expected: The warm waters of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico should give Tropical Depression Ten the fuel it needs to reach tropical storm status by the end of the weekend. The NHC best forecast call for additional strengthening through mid-week, with the potential for rapid intensification not to be ruled out; thus there is a high likelihood of the storm reaching hurricane strength prior to landfall. 
• Florida Gulf Coast landfall: Current model guidance indicates a landfall along the Florida Gulf Coast mid-week (early Wednesday), with onset of conditions on Tuesday per the NHC. A large swath of area currently falls within the NHC cone of uncertainty. Forecasts should be monitored throughout the week, as changes can occur leading up to landfall.
• Idalia: Once tropical storm strength is obtained, TD10 will take on the name of Idalia. Historically, "I" named storms are retired the most, including recent storms of Ian and Ida, as well as Irma, Ike, and Ida, to name a few. 

 Tropical Depression Ten as of 7 AM CDT on August 27, 2023. Source: NHC/NOAA.

Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies in the Gulf of Mexico, indicating the abundance of warm waters for TD10 to strengthen.  Source: Brian McNoldy, University of Miami.

Model track guidance for TD10, showing a probable Florida Gulf Coast landfall later this week. Source: Tropical Tidbits.

Additional links of interest:
Live Satellite of the Gulf of Mexico and Western Caribbean
U.S. National Hurricane Center
U.S. National Weather Service
NWS Tampa

Statements from official forecast and emergency management agencies supersede this update, and should be closely followed concerning matters of personal safety.

The next update on this storm is planned for tomorrow, Monday, August 28.