Latest RMS update on hurricane Dorian

As of the 15:00 UTC NHC advisory, Dorian is 45 miles north of Freeport, Bahamas with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph (strong Category 2)...

Dorian is finally exiting the Bahamas after stalling over the northern islands for 24-36 hours, causing massive devastation

• Forecast summary
  • Though the official National Hurricane Center track does not show Hurricane Dorian making landfall over Florida, a small deviation to the west once it is tracking north could bring the hurricane closer to the Florida coastline
    • Although the cone of uncertainty around the official National Hurricane Center forecast track no longer covers Florida, the system could still impact the state
  • A landfall in the Carolinas is now more likely as the system recurves northeast through the latter stages of this week. There is also a possibility that the system could avoid making landfall altogether
    • If it makes landfall in the Carolinas it could be as a Category 2 hurricane
    • The latest operational models suggest there is a ~2% chance of a direct landfall in extreme northern Florida and a ~40% chance of a Georgia/Carolinas landfall

• Historical events
  • No major hurricane (Cat 3+) has ever crossed the northern Bahamas with a path similar to Dorian’s east-west track
    • Most severe historical storms come up from the south, so they hit more islands and usually impact New Providence (and the city of Nassau), which were spared the worst of Dorian
    • Only one hurricane has ever impacted the Bahamas as a Category 5 (Andrew, 1992), although it did not impact the same islands as Dorian
    • Only four Category 3-4 storms have passed near Grand Bahama/Abaco; their losses are below, but keep in mind that none of these were as intense or impactful as Dorian. Losses are for Grand Bahama and Abaco islands only, wind and storm surge only. A reminder that these are past storms analyzed over present-day exposure

• These are notable Category 2 hurricanes that made landfall in Georgia or the Carolinas. Losses are U.S. only, wind and storm surge only (no flood). This matches up with the latest NHC forecast

• Hurricane Matthew (2016) also followed a similar path along the southeast U.S. coast and would cause $2.3bn in loss on present-day exposure