Economic losses from June European weather events expected to exceed $2bn

Record-setting heatwave and costly severe weather sweep across Europe in June...

Aon plc has launched the latest edition of its monthly Global Catastrophe Recap report, which evaluates the impact of the natural disaster events that occurred worldwide during June 2019.

The report reveals that an outbreak of severe weather between June 10-12 generated large hail, strong gusts and intense rainfall in multiple countries of Central Europe. Significant hail damage occurred in the greater Munich metro region, with additional damage occurring in other areas of Germany, Poland, Slovenia, the Czech Republic and Northern Italy. Europe-wide economic costs were expected to minimally exceed EUR915 million (USD1.1 billion), while insurers anticipated claims of at least EUR740 million (USD830 million).

Severe storms impacted portions of Western and Central Europe during the weekend of June 15-16, particularly Southwest France, canton Genève in Switzerland, Niedersachsen in Germany and parts of the Czech Republic and Austria. The worst impacts were in France, where a state of disaster was declared. Total economic losses resulting from large hail, severe winds and intense rainfall was expected to minimally top EUR500 million (USD560 million), with insurers covering most of the losses.

Michal Lorinc, Catastrophe Analyst within Aon’s Impact Forecasting team, said: “An active start to summer in the Northern Hemisphere featured many large-scale weather events including severe thunderstorms, flooding, extreme heatwaves, and drought. Europe was at the center of many of these perils as record temperatures engulfed parts of France, and large hail and damaging winds led to more than USD730 million in insured costs in Germany alone. Impact Forecasting currently has a fully probabilistic hail model available for several European countries to help clients better understand the growing risks associated with hail to property exposure.”

Severe weather impacted the United States during the month, including periods of powerful thunderstorms and flooding rains impacted parts of the Rockies, Plains, and the Southeast from June 8-10. At least three people were killed and more than a dozen others injured. Total economic losses were estimated at up to USD575 million, while public/private insurers payouts were estimated to reach USD400 million.

Seasonal rainfall and flooding began across parts of central and southern China, with the hardest-hit provincial regions included Guizhou, Jiangxi, Guangxi, and Guangdong. During the month of June and into July, at least 200 people were declared dead or missing, with nearly 200,000 homes and other structures incurring flood inundation. Widespread damage to more than 430,000 hectares (1.06 million acres) of cropland also occurred. The seasonal flood toll in China was listed at CNY42.4 billion (USD6.1 billion).

Other natural catastrophe events to have occurred elsewhere during June include:

• A record-setting heatwave in southwestern and central Europe from June 24-July 1 killed 13 people, with the number expected to increase. An all-time maximum temperature was set in France at Gallargues le Montueux – 45.9°C (114.6°F). Hundreds of other daily and June records also occurred in Germany, Spain, Poland, Switzerland, Luxembourg, Lichtenstein, Andorra, and the Czech Republic.

• Continued heat and a lack of rainfall further exacerbated drought conditions in parts of India. Among the hardest-hit areas were in the state of Maharashtra, where an estimated 60 percent of orange orchards were destroyed. The potential losses were estimated from INR50-70 billion (USD720 million to USD1 billion). Nationwide year-to-date drought losses increased to approximately USD1.75 billion.

• No fewer than 10 separate instances of severe weather and flooding impacted the United States during the month of June. A majority of damage was attributed to straight-line winds, with the Storm Prediction Center citing nearly 3,800 instances of winds gusting beyond 60 mph (95 kph). Most damage was incurred from the Rockies to the Northeast. Total combined monthly economic losses will exceed USD1 billion. Insurers will cover a majority of the hail and wind-related impacts.

• Significant rainfall spawned flash flooding in Brazil’s Recipe metro region in Pernambuco state on June 13. At least seven people were killed as floodwaters inundated several large neighborhoods. As many as 30,000 people were evacuated as further damaged occurred to infrastructure and agriculture.

• Heavy rains swept across several sections of Yemen from June 7-9. At least three people were killed, and more than 80,000 people were directly affected. Severe inundation was cited to thousands of homes and swaths of infrastructure. At least 10 governorates were affected, with Hajjah the hardest-hit.

• A magnitude-5.8 earthquake struck China’s Sichuan Province on June 17. At least 13 people were killed and another 226 were injured. A minimum of 156,000 homes were damaged. Total economic losses were minimally estimated at CNY8.9 billion (USD1.3 billion).

• At least 13 people were killed in Ghana following multiple waves of heavy rainfall from May 30-June 1. Most of the fatalities occurred in the Sekondi-Takoradi Metropolitan District of the Western Region after flooding overwhelmed local infrastructure. Additional damage and casualties occurred in the Accra region.

To view the full Impact Forecasting June 2019 Global Catastrophe Recap report, please follow the link:

http://thoughtleadership.aon.com/Documents/20190907-analytics-if-june-global-recap.pdf

Along with the report, users can access current and historical natural catastrophe data and event analysis on Impact Forecasting’s Catastrophe Insight website, which is updated bi-monthly as new data become available:

http://catastropheinsight.aon.com