Dorian update - Wednesday

As of the 15:00 UTC NHC advisory, Dorian is 90 miles east-northeast of Daytona Beach, Florida with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph (Category 2)...

• Possible impacts in the U.S.
  • Although the center of the hurricane is approximately 100 mi (161 km) offshore, tropical storm-force winds are currently impacting coastal locations in central and northern Florida
  • Storm surge is expected to become a concern as the storm parallels the coastline
  • Upwards of 7 inches of rain is expected along coastal portions of the southeast U.S. over the next few days
     
• Historical events
  • U.S.: Hurricane Matthew (2016) also followed a similar path along the southeast U.S. coast and would cause $2.3bn in loss on present-day exposure
    • Only one hurricane has ever impacted the Bahamas as a Category 5 (Andrew, 1992), although it did not impact the same islands as Dorian
    • Only four Category 3-4 storms have passed near Grand Bahama/Abaco; their losses are below, but keep in mind that none of these were as intense or impactful as Dorian. Losses are for Grand Bahama and Abaco islands only, wind and storm surge only. A reminder that these are past storms analyzed over present-day exposure

• These are notable Category 2 hurricanes that made landfall in Georgia or the Carolinas. Losses are U.S. only, wind and storm surge only (no flood). This matches up with the latest NHC forecast