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Dorian - latest information report

Hurricane Dorian currently has maximum sustained wind speeds of 105 mph (165 km/h), equivalent to a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS), according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)...

Key Statistics

Current Strength (SSHWS): Cat2

Forecast Max. Strength (SSHWS): Cat4

Current Watches/Warnings: 1

 

Event Summary

  • Dorian is forecast by the NHC to intensify later today, Friday August 30, into a major hurricane (Category 3 or stronger)
  • Dorian impacted the Caribbean on August 26-28. Damage was largely roof damage, power outages, downed trees, and minor flooding.
  • Dorian is currently located 260 mi (420 km) east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas and is tracking towards the northwest at a forward speed of 12 mph (19 km/h)
    • Dorian is forecast by the NHC to track east of the southeastern and central Bahamas today and to approach the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday August 31. Dorian should then move over or near portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday September 1
    • Significant storm surge is expected on the coast of the northwestern Bahamas
  • There remains significant uncertainty in the forecasts for Dorian beyond 36 hours, including uncertainty around its potential U.S. landfall location, time, and intensity.

Meteorological Discussion and Forecast (as of 09:00 UTC on Friday August 30)

Current conditions and forecast through the next 24 hours

  • Dorian is battling mid- and upper-level dry air intrusion on the south side of the hurricane, which limited intensification in the past 12-24 hours
  • The system is being steered by a mid-tropospheric ridge centered near Bermuda and a mid- to upper-level low located over the Bahamas and Florida Strait. These steering currents are currently guiding Dorian toward the west-northwest, with a sharper turn to the west expected in 12-24 hours as the aforementioned ridge builds over the southwestern Atlantic and the mid- to upper-level low weakens and drifts west over Cuba
  • As it turns west-northwest and then west, vertical wind shear is expected to reduce and the entrainment of the dry air should decline. These factors, combined with a track that is expected to pass over sea surface temperatures in excess of 29°C, should promote considerable intensification
  • The system is expected to attain major hurricane intensity (Category 3 or stronger) by 18:00 UTC today, Friday August 30

Forecast through next 24-72 hours (Bahamas and U.S.)

  • In the past 24 hours, there has been a notable trend in the global operational model guidance for a slower, more southerly track beyond 36 hours, suggesting Dorian may track more slowly through the northern Bahamas and on its approach to Florida. This trend has also delayed the anticipated time at which Dorian is expected to impact the Bahamas to Sunday and Monday, with impacts in Florida not expected until Monday at the earliest
  • The delay in expected arrival time to beyond the weekend will allow other larger-scale dynamics to evolve, which could impact the final trajectory and landfall location of Dorian, and lends to the high uncertainty attached to these forecasts
  • Regardless of location, most model guidance is in agreement that Dorian will likely be a Category 4 major hurricane while it is located somewhere near the northern Bahamas on Sunday evening local time
  • Impacts beyond 96 hours are even more uncertain and will be dependent on the outcome of the next 24-48 hours
  • Regardless of landfall location and intensity, there is an increasing likelihood of a prolonged period of hazardous weather conditions that could last for multiple days

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