With nearly all lines of coverage continuing to display price increases, albeit primarily in the single digits, while the property market maintains a relatively hard market.
Certain clients and industry sectors still face spiraling premiums at renewal. To combat this, WTW has proactively assisted clients disrupt the status quo by testing and implementing creative solutions to address challenges faced by clients, not just in property coverage but also with cyber risk, terrorism, and auto liability. These creative, alternative solutions include risk transfer via parametric options, integrated solutions, and alternative capital/MGA/MGU solutions. Additional innovative options include risk financing-led structured programs, along with captives, group captives, and rent-a-captive solutions to provide complementary and/or alternative solutions to traditional insurance programs.
A positive aspect in commercial lines is the fact that price increases have begun to stabilize. Following the aftermath of Hurricane Ian, reinsurers have found themselves on shaky ground. In response, property reinsurers implemented all-encompassing cuts to capacity, resulting in substantial price increases and larger retentions for retail insurers. This prompted retail insurers to overhaul their property insurance portfolios, reducing capacity and ushering in a challenging property market for buyers. These conditions have persisted throughout 2023, culminating in over $100 billion of insured property losses, despite a relatively calm Atlantic hurricane season. A bright spot lies in the restructuring of reinsurance treaty retentions, positioning the capital base for meaningful returns. For consumers, this could attract additional capital to the property insurance marketplace,
potentially reducing property insurance prices and mitigating market challenges in 2024.
Looking ahead to 2024, casualty treaty reinsurers are considering social inflation and rate adequacy in casualty lines. If investment and reinsurance capacity decrease in liability lines, the current moderate rate environment may shift towards harder conditions. Economic uncertainties stemming from global conflicts and a slowing Chinese economy contribute to uncertainty, though the Property and Casualty industry remains well- capitalized, boasting $970 billion in policyholder surplus and increasing investment yields. This capital position may impact buyers positively, driving softer market pricing.
Amidst the shifting landscape, financial lines, including cyber insurance, stands out as a bright spot, maintaining stability throughout the market. The financial lines sector appears resilient, with significant shifts towards a hard market contingent upon major claims or disruptions in the financial sector.
Despite the challenges and uncertainties, the Property and Casualty industry does not anticipate material changes in the near term. The property market aims to endure the hard market conditions for as long as possible. The casualty market may seek rate increases amid a constricting capital base and ongoing remediation of liability portfolios by insurers. Jon Drummond, Head of Broking, North America, WTW, commented: “As the reinsurance market continues to exert its influence over retail insurers and capital distribution, our clients may face more uncertainty in 2024 across both property and casualty product lines. The concept of a bifurcated market has become seemingly omnipresent, but this dynamic may grow to be even more prevalent across multiple lines of business and industries in the foreseeable future.”
Key price predictions for 2024
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